Wunderdog Sports Picks has an interesting article that we can apply to our NFL office pools. It discusses some reasons to pick the underdog. This fits really well with my “Contrarian Theory” of office pools that I discuss in my NFL Strategy Guide. I think that you have to be able to pick the winning underdog regularly to be successful at office pools. The exception is in Survivor pools where one mistake can eliminate you but in most standard Pick’em pool or Confidence pools you have to find that undervalued underdog.
Lets take a look at what they say are the reasons why we need to pick the underdog:
1) NFL parity
This is a big factor why you must be able to pick underdogs. The NFL is filled with parity as teams that win many games one year will come back and win far less the next. Underdogs win all the time and you need to be aware of the trends that point to a winning underdog.
2) A Win Is A Win
Most games are played within 2 touchdowns, which means most games are close. Teams rarely get blown out as coaches will rest starters and avoid injury late in a game.
3) No Respect
The underdog gets little respect from the public and this makes them mad. You have to remember these are some of the most competitive people in the world and most are use to winning and succeeding so they will battle tooth and nail.
4) The Public
The public loves to bet the favorite and the “sexy team”. This pushes the line higher than it should and the value comes in on the underdog.
5) Courage
Most people do not like picking underdogs and don’t know how. That is why I show you how to do it in my NFL Strategy Guide, it pays off. Don’t be afraid of the dog and use historical trends to pick your spots.
6) The Point Spread
The point spread only matters in 16% of the games. So the winner will win outright most of the time. Therefore pick games based on who is going to win not who is favored. Most people don’t know this and therefore miss many great opportunities.
I agree with all of the points made by this article in fact I discuss these reasons in more detail in my book. If you want to succeed in your office pool you have to take the risk and pick some underdogs each week. You will be surprised how well you will do.
Interested in a FREE office pool contest to test out your underdog theory try:
